Media Day: VCs and Founders in AI Presented by theCUBE + NYSE Wired | Peter Tuchman, Einstein of Wall Street

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Peter Tuchman

Einstein of Wall Street

Moderator at Wall Street Global Trading Academy

play_circle_outline Market rally attributed to relief post-election

play_circle_outline Potential market trends leading into holiday season

play_circle_outline Expectation of more IPOs and private equity action in tech sector

play_circle_outline Post-Election Market Stability: Retail Traders Eye IPOs and New Investments

play_circle_outline Truth will prevail, generational change in access to information and bias detection.

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Peter Tuchman, Einstein of Wall Street

Peter Tuchman

Einstein of Wall Street Moderator at Wall Street Global Trading Academy

John Furrier, the host of theCUBE, spoke with Peter Tuchman about the recent election and market trends. The market saw a relief rally after the election, with record highs. Tuchman mentioned concerns about Trump's potential policies, such as tariffs on China. They also discussed the strong performance of companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and NVIDIA.

They touched on the history of the market and the potential for a dip followed by a Santa Claus rally in the coming months. Tuchman expected increased IPO activity and private equity action. The conversa... Read more

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What was the reason behind the recent rally in the stock market? add

What is the historic data around market trends during presidential election years? add

What are your thoughts on the potential increase in IPOs and private equity action, fueled by the tech sector and possible stability around Trump following the election? add

What is the potential impact of new retail traders and their investments on the market? add

What is being discussed on theCUBE podcast? add

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Peter Tuchman, Einstein of Wall Street

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>> Welcome back everyone to theCUBE's coverage here. We're in our East Coast studio kicking off, we're phasing in, getting up speed full-time in 2025. I'm John Furrier, your host of theCUBE. Peter Tuchman's here, the Einstein of Wall Street. Turned out to be a daily segment when we're going to get going full time, but great to have you on.

Peter Tuchman

>> Thank you.

>> Last time we did a great segment. A lot of great feedback on the history of the, people love the historical perspective.

Peter Tuchman

>> They do, yeah. We're in the greatest financial institution in the world.

>> And the whole 87 thing we talked about. I mean, you're awesome. Thanks for your time.

Peter Tuchman

>> .

>> I know you're super busy and you're mentoring folks and you got to go. We don't have a lot of time as we did last time, but we had an election and market's up. People are super happy, there's a relief. Okay, the stability and hate and all this nonsense is going to be. Now, so hopefully Trump will have a second coming of his life now that he almost saw his future almost gone. I think the big story, obviously CNBC covered it deeply, is the M&A market. Obviously we cover on our CUBE pod, Lina Khan. We're really kind of against her honestly, M&A market I mean on frozen mode. But a lot of people are saying, "Hey, we're starting to see M&A activity." CNBC had a story yesterday that there's already talk of Chevron, other people already talking.

Peter Tuchman

>> Right.

>> What's the buzz? What are you hearing on the floor here around the election? Relief?

Peter Tuchman

>> Well.

>> Nervousness?

Peter Tuchman

>> Let's think about it. I think, look, everyone would love to attribute the 1,600 point Dow rally and 1,200 point S&P rally yesterday and the fact that we closed record highs yesterday and record highs again today. We actually touched, we kissed 6,000 on the S&P today attributed to Mr. Trump, and look, all respect to Mr. Trump. I think it was really a relief rally where there's been so much polarity around this thing and the toxicity of the nation around this election, whoever, whatever side you're on, where we're going to stay apolitical as far as that so it was really a sigh of relief. Markets can handle anything except anxiety and unknowns, and now we know what we know, and so that's where this rally is coming from. We don't know enough about what his plans are, right? There are a number of wild cards within his potential policies, whether it's tariffs in China, or what. Now, we saw that from the first administration, but we do know that there's a lot of money being put to work. We have to look at some of these bigger guys, on how they're going to position themselves in the next six weeks into 2025 and into his presidency. Hopefully, they can figure out where to put their money and try and figure out what his plan is, because he has a wild card. He can wake up in the morning and decide that tariffs are the way or China is his problem or whatnot. I think it was a wonderful relief rally, but we need to remember that the day before the election, we also were at a record high, so we can only attribute the last four years of record highs to this past administration. Trying to put it all in perspective, I think everybody's relieved that it's over and now we can finally move on and hope that everybody has the best interest of the economy of the markets involved. As far as your question, as far as M&A and whatnot, look, I'm more interested in the IPL market. MDM and the M&A market are fascinating and they don't have that much to do with each other. I would love to see, I think that we've seen a lot of pullback on IPOs in the market just because of the uncertainty around everything to do with the election. People are scared about the market. While our market rallies to these high levels, there's also this weird fear about that is the bubble going to burst? Is this real? Is there support in this? I mean because you ask anybody, it can't go. I learned from COVID days in the last five years of forensically analyzing this market that everyone, it can't go any higher or it can't go any lower. This market can give us anything it wants to. It's capable of low-lows, high-highs. You could be lucky for a dollar, wrong for $50, it's spectacular.

>> And also, we had a great earnings week going into the election with the hyperscalers. I mean, look at Amazon. You look at Microsoft, you look at Apple, look at NVIDIA. NVIDIA just replaced Intel.

Peter Tuchman

>> Look at Tesla, right.

>> They're all pumping on all cylinders. They're all rocking their highs 10 years.

Peter Tuchman

>> Correct.

>> So you got the hyperscalers as a productivity machine. I think we're seeing, I remember in college, "Oh, the Dow could hit 3,000." Okay.

Peter Tuchman

>> It's amazing to think of it, that we actually had S&P 6,000. 15 minutes ago, we tickled it and that's extraordinary, right? Nobody, I was talking to Dan Ives earlier in the year and it was trading at 5,300 and he said, "There's going to be a six in front of this number by the end of the year," and everyone thought he was crazy, but it's a fact. Let's look at Tesla. Tesla had gone through this autonomous car thing where it's sold off pretty heavily and it flatlined down 50 or 60 bucks. I once again went to my man Dan and this is one of the things I'll often talk about, has this story fundamentally changed? And the story had not, when you look at a company that something about it is knocking it off its pedestal. That was what the autonomous story with Tesla and he would say, "No, nothing is fundamental. Hang in there, earnings are coming out, they're going to beat and things are going to be okay." Sure enough, he was right. They beat, up 17%, it was up $13 after the close that day. $50, $60 the next day, and it's off to the races.

>> Yeah. What I like about Dan the man, as you say. Dan, your man, he's not yet my man on theCUBE.

Peter Tuchman

>> He will be though.

>> I like that guy a lot. He'll be great on theCUBE.

Peter Tuchman

>> Yes, he will.

>> If he hits on something in these stocks that are interesting is that he gets to some intrinsic key things. If you look at NVIDIA, we saw that coming. He saw that coming.

Peter Tuchman

>> At $180.

>> CUDA, software.

Peter Tuchman

>> Yeah.

>> Tesla, software. And by the way, that's portable. Space, cars, what else? So you're starting to see that the economics are changing with this technology leverage that's not just reserved for tech companies.

Peter Tuchman

>> Right.

>> We might see a smashing of these ceiling numbers. I mean, I'm blown away. I'm always like, "Ah, can't go up." I'm one of those guys who loves the highs, but no, can't get any higher than this. It's like, come on, what's going on?

Peter Tuchman

>> It is and it's amazing. And Dan will always talk about too that there's going to, you've got NVIDIA, you've got everything around that trillion dollars being put to work, but then you've got the secondary and tertiary stock. He describes it, it's... Look, it's the people who are going to be using all their products and whatnot, so it's not just a one trick pony. There's so much around that. All the people that are going to use their products and down the line, whether it's Microsoft, Google, Amazon, these things are going to just explode and that's why he calls it a revolution.

>> I want to get your thoughts on election night because I know I was not in town because I was in California, flew in the day of the election. What was the buzz like on the floor on the day of the election? I know CNBC had a marathon session here. Were you here?

Peter Tuchman

>> I was here.

>> Do people stay? What's the protocol?

Peter Tuchman

>> I was here. No, I was. I don't think people stayed around, but I was here and I also was watching it and I know that, look, the floor is very Republican. The floor are big pro-Trumpers, and they always have been. People were wearing the merch, people were walking around with the hats and the shirts, and so there was a lot of buzz around the election during the day. Now, I would say there maybe are a handful of Democrats on the floor, and so they kept to themselves, and basically the floor elected the ones who are touting the Trump, the MAGA hats and go for it.

>> Hell, like California where I live, except that the MAGA supporters keep their mouths shut.

Peter Tuchman

>> Exactly. Well, this was the reverse because the guys who were the big MAGA here, people are very loud. They have been for a long time, but if you watched the story throughout the night, I mean it was a fascinating thing coming into it. I don't think anybody really knew, even if you asked, because I always ask, I love to see what everybody thought. I don't think anybody knew who was going to win. I mean, it was one of those odd, even people who were big Trump supporters were not clear that somehow this was not going to get pulled off by the Democrats. And so you saw it. Dan was on all night with those guys, and he talked about it, whatever it was, whether it was one o'clock or three o'clock when it was clear that Trump had won. Market was, I mean I have an amazing memory of the first time he ran. We were down and people were less pro-Trump at the time, but the market was down 1,000 points at 3:30 in the morning. By the time we opened the next morning, we were up 1,000. It was an intra morning reversal of 2000 points. Here, we were literally, by six to eight o'clock at night, even before the polls closed, the market was already up 700, 800 points on the S&P and we were up 1,000, 1,200. The fact that we've sustained this rally through to the today, today was a follow-through day. We also had the Fed meeting today, which was fascinating. And as I just mentioned to you, somebody came on during the news conference. Look, the number came out-

>> At the Fed meeting.

Peter Tuchman

>> At the Fed meeting, sorry, the Fed meeting. He announced a 25 basis point cut. I don't know if he discussed whether there'd be one more by the end of the year, it's very possible. But people started asking questions, and he was comfortable with labor markets, he was comfortable with everything he had done. And in my opinion, he's done a great job. We've gone from eight and a half percent to two and a half percent. Everything he promised, he's come through with. So whether people like him or, I'm a fan and I think he's done a great job.

>> The evidence is there.

Peter Tuchman

>> Yeah, exactly, 100%. But somebody did say if Mr. Trump were to fire you, there rumors are that it's going to be, would you leave? And he said no, and it wasn't like he was equivocating it all. So look, I don't know, Mr. Trump is a bit of a wild guy. Why you would want to throw a wrench into something that's so, look, the economy is-

>> Don't break it.

Peter Tuchman

>> Don't break it.

>> If it's not broke, don't fix it.

Peter Tuchman

>> Exactly. And this is not an easy game to play, right? The tools that are given from by the Fed are amazing. We learned our lesson. If you go back to 2007, the financial crisis, they threw 800 billion at AIG and all the banks that they had to bail out over 18 months. It took nine years to get back to even after the financial crisis. During COVID, they threw $3 trillion into the market over three months. We were back to even by August. Remember COVID was March 15th, 2020. We were back to even by August 19th. We were up 20% in 2020, 28% in 2021. That's amazing. In my opinion, if we had not done that, I think we would've been on red lines during COVID at that point if we had not done what we did. And so then we had '22, which was just a normal year of after 18 consecutive interest rate raises.

>> Yeah, I think Trump needs to go to the next level in his comeback, which is he has to prove everyone wrong, in his mind, that when he got in his first term, he promises prosperity. He promises more money in your bank account.

Peter Tuchman

>> Right.

>> Trump's Trump and he's a character, he's a personality.

Peter Tuchman

>> Yeah.

>> And so he's got to have the policies that he ran on that say, "Look at, you're going to put money in my pocket. You can help me at the kitchen table, prove it."

Peter Tuchman

>> Exactly.

>> Now if he goes off the rails, that's the wild card in my mind. I think he wants that. So I think if he just gets the right people signaling to him, he'll go off what signaling he gets, I think the market's saying, "Look, don't mess with us."

Peter Tuchman

>> Correct.

>> "We got this."

Peter Tuchman

>> Correct. Now, I spoke to a gentleman named Tim Anderson who works on the floor, another guy I'd love to introduce you to. Super bright guy from, a broker on the floor. Very right-wing, Republican, big Trumper and we were talking about the promise by Trump of tax cuts. Now apparently, I guess in 2017, the tax cuts were initiated. And so the actual, if you read into the law that Biden didn't do anything to change those tax cuts and all Trump needs to do is not change them in any way. The promise by him that we're going to see these big, huge tax cuts may actually not be what a reality, it may be that we're just not changing the one-

>> He might not have to do it....

Peter Tuchman

>> been in place.

>> That's what he's saying, we might not have to do anything.

Peter Tuchman

>> Correct, and right, because look, at the end of the day, irrespective of two major global wars, all that's been going on in the markets with the labor market and all that's happening, we are trading at record highs pre-election, right? I mean, on a spectacular mode. NVIDIA, February 2023, we're at $108. February 2024, we were at $900. It went to 1200, split 10 for one, and a 50 billion buyback. That's extraordinary.

>> Yeah, that's extraordinary.

Peter Tuchman

>> Dan Ives says we were in the second inning of a credible game, an amazing game that is a revolution that's going to go on for many years to come.

>> Yeah, and I think what he's factoring into is that, again, back to the economic equation, is that NVIDIA's rise is ironic too. They replaced Intel on the Dow.

Peter Tuchman

>> Right.

>> Okay, that's a huge, huge replacement.

Peter Tuchman

>> Yes.

>> Kind of a diss on Intel. Intel was the darling of the PC revolution.

Peter Tuchman

>> For so long, correct.

>> Okay, now they're dethroned.

Peter Tuchman

>> Correct.

>> NVIDIA's the darling. What does AMD do? AMD just surpassed Intel. Okay, on their x86 side. So now you got AMD and NVIDIA coming in. Then you got Amazon and you got Microsoft. You get nuclear power and the cloud. I mean, who knows where this goes? Now you're talking about massive CapEx, massive spending.

Peter Tuchman

>> Correct.

>> On the CapEx side.

Peter Tuchman

>> Yes, and that's what we're seeing in AI. That's going to continue and it's going to flow over from NVIDIA into Microsoft, into Google, into Amazon and things like that. Today, we saw that it was a huge move in the Dow, right? They took the Dow out of the Dow and then they put in, what was the thing today? Oh, they put Sherwin-Williams, and what were the other ones they put into the Dow today? There were two additions to the Dow, which we haven't seen an addition to the Dow except Apple, which was a number of years ago. So the fact that you're seeing these valuations that are incredible are causing shifts in these indices that have been extraordinary.

>> Yeah, it's incredible. The market's changing so much. I want to get your thoughts on how you see potentially the next couple months playing out. Obviously, holiday season's coming. What's the trend line there? Does it dip down? Does it hang out, obviously the end of the year, depending on who wins the Super Bowl? We know that stat. NFC, was it NFC teams set the pace? Is it-

Peter Tuchman

>> Oh, I didn't actually know that, but I will-

>> There's a stat that whatever team wins, whichever Congress wins the year goes a different way. I think it's NFC, someone will correct me on that, but what do you expect in the next couple of months? We've got Trump coming in, they've got the inauguration targeted, that's the beginning of the year. What do you expect, based upon your historical view, the market might do?

Peter Tuchman

>> Okay, so apparently something that I had recently read and I wanted to really investigate it, what the historic data is around election years. Apparently, eight out of eight political cycles where we've had a presidential election, a week after the election, the market tends to dip down. You do see a follow through rally during the first week after the election. You see a dip into the November 21st, and then you see a beautiful rally for the last six weeks of the market as Santa Claus comes to town. And I think this market is setting itself up for that kind of a scenario. As you described, a little bit of a dip, probably starting on Monday maybe, maybe mid-week next week into the November 21st when we start to see the Thanksgiving effect, the Black Friday effect, and then you see the Santa Claus rally. I still see money being put to work. We know that there are billions and billions of dollars still on the sidelines in mutual funds and whatnot, that's what it feels like in the market.

>> We heard from a previous guest earlier, Michael Lebow, who has a censure background, but he's been doing a lot of work with private equities. The demand on that side has just been waiting to activate, and I think we might see a lot of activity, certainly later stage fundings you see in those get liquid, more companies getting ready to go public. I think that's going to come on. Good point, you called that out. But I think there's going to be also roll-up too. I think there's going to be a lot of private equity action. That's going to be fueled by, I think IPOs coming on board quickly. The tech sector that we're in, word was, "Hey, hold off on the election." That's the whisper. But now it's like, okay, to get some stability around Trump versus this or that, I think there's going to be a green light so I think you see a lot more IPOs. Your thoughts on that and the private equity.

Peter Tuchman

>> Look, IPOs are a fascinating thing. We've seen in 2018, 2019, it was such a boisterous time for IPOs in this market and then we saw the environment change so much around the WeWork debacle and that knocked everybody off. And then you really, for the last two years, we've seen a bit of a halt in the IPO market around the toxicity of the polarity of the nation and the election. I think the sigh of relief that this is over, right? As historically markets and politics rarely mix, they don't really cross over. This was probably a little more than I would've normally seen. I think a sigh of relief around that money being put to work. You have to realize too that we have this new generation of 50 million new retail traders in the market. I see them on social media, on Twitter Spaces and whatnot who are out there. Some of them have made some good money, are looking for alternative investments, IPO being one of them. It's amazing to see how savvy some of these guys are and women are who have made some money and looking to put their money to work. There are millions and millions of dollars ready to be put into the market. I think there are a lot of companies that, look, we talked to Brian, we know that there is a pipeline internationally and nationally of companies looking, lining up to list here on the NYSE, right? We've made it really friendly, whether it's NYSE American or just regular NYSE due to valuation and capitalization ready to list and the environment is ready for it and the market is ready for it. Now obviously with this sigh of relief, I think it'll be fun.

>> Yeah, so a lot of prospects even coming in today, actually some companies. So great stuff as always, fantastic to have you on.

Peter Tuchman

>> Pleasure.

>> When we're up and running full throttle, we'll have to check in with you on all market activities. Love the known/unknown aspect of the election. I think that is clearly the vote. The tribe has voted. We now know everyone wants this to be peacetime in terms of toxicity, have one unified message. Clear policies are mandated. Hopefully the markets can do their thing. Governments stay out of our underwear as we say.

Peter Tuchman

>> I think that will be the case.

>> I think we got this.

Peter Tuchman

>> I believe that's the case, and I think it should be smooth sailing. Look, the market irrespective of the election, the market, if people really wanted to sell into this and felt that there was problems in the horizon, we've gotten through a couple of wars, we've gotten through a lot, and there's been no selling. We are not even hitting up against technical resistance at these levels, and these levels are incredible.

>> I think the retail angle, you're saying people want to get into the action. You're seeing that on the privates and the later stage liquidity markets. I know NYSE is working on an index to look at that and doing some good work there. And then these gamers that are all online, you're mentoring many of them. I think the demand for a new retail equation is coming very fast, and I think that demand is going to change the IPO process. Maybe bring it down the pipeline a little bit left, but I think you can see a lot more activity, this thirst for that. I think one big takeaway, and you can appreciate this because you're a content creator as a hobby I guess. You're a podcaster. The podcasts were a big part of the election. I mean, this is where people want to see people talk for three hours. I mean, I'm not going to do three hour news, maybe all day I do a lot of interviews, but they act through a lot of hours. But hearing the unscripted, unvarnished truth-

Peter Tuchman

>> Opinions and truth, you're right....

>> is a really way. And people are good now looking at video and saying, "Hmm, he's telling the truth." And so trust is huge. You're seeing the podcast format. Mainstream media took a little haircut. I mean, I saw a story run. I was in California on local news, all channels. Lead story was this Liz Cheney thing. I watched the Trump comment. Trump made a comment. It was literally taken out of context. It was an absolute lie. Some editors made a choice to run that. That to me is not just biased news channels. That's an editorial professional making a call knowing if they did any legwork of any kind. Watch the video.

Peter Tuchman

>> Right.

>> It's only a minute and a half clip.

Peter Tuchman

>> Right.

>> If anyone did their work, which they did, they had to watch it. They ran a story that was false, and they had set pieces with Kamala Harris amplifying the misinterpretation. It was blatant malpractice. That kind of thing has been seen by this generation. They're like, "No, no, we know that's wrong."

Peter Tuchman

>> Yeah.

>> And so I think this is really where this generational things change. Information, computer vision. I can watch with my eyes and listen with my ears.

Peter Tuchman

>> Yep.

>> I like that person. Okay, now I know what he or she stands for.

Peter Tuchman

>> Look, truth will always prevail. But it's amazing how, and I'm hoping that starts to happen again where you're having people who are speaking their truth and you're having people run podcasts like you are and stuff, telling what's real.

>> All right. Well, thank you Peter for coming back on.

Peter Tuchman

>> Happy. Pleasure guys. Happy trading.

>> Okay, this is theCUBE breaking down all the action. Bringing the action, what's going on the floor. What's going on on the floor at the Stock Exchange really will matter as this day-to-day high frequency insights coming from the Einstein of Wall Street himself. I'm John Furrier, host of theCUBE, of course, always here bringing all the action. Thanks for watching.